Is this a good sports betting strategy?
Is this a good sports betting strategy?
dubak00 asked:
I want to bet on college football. I only want to make money line bets. I would only bet on ranked teams winning over unranked teams. When I check the money lines they are usually at -110 for the favorite. At this payout you have win 53 percent of games. By betting on ranked vs unranked teams the ranked team wins well above that percentage. Is this a good way to bet or am I missing something?
Answer
While your strategy of betting on ranked college football teams to win against unranked teams might seem like a good idea, there are some factors to consider before you proceed:
- Odds/Payout: The odds for ranked teams against unranked teams will often be heavily skewed in favor of the ranked team. This means the potential payout will be lower, and you’ll have to risk more money to win a smaller amount. The -110 odds you mentioned are for point spread bets, not money line bets. Money line odds for heavily favored teams can be much lower (e.g., -300 or more), requiring you to risk even more money for a smaller payout.
- Upsets: Upsets are a part of college football, and even highly ranked teams can lose to unranked opponents. Relying solely on a team’s ranking might not always be the best indicator of their likelihood to win, especially if there are injuries, coaching changes, or other factors that could impact their performance.
- Betting Value: It’s essential to look for value in your bets, meaning that you want to find situations where you believe the probability of an outcome is greater than what the odds suggest. Betting solely on ranked teams against unranked teams might not always offer the best value, as sportsbooks are aware of these disparities and adjust the odds accordingly.
- Research and Analysis: A successful betting strategy usually involves more in-depth research and analysis of various factors such as team performance, player injuries, and recent form. By focusing solely on the team’s ranking, you might miss out on other valuable insights that could impact the outcome of a game.
In summary, while betting on ranked teams to win against unranked opponents might seem like a good starting point, it’s essential to consider other factors and look for value in your bets. It’s also crucial to manage your bankroll wisely and practice responsible gambling habits to protect your finances.
2:09 am
You may be confused. Lines where the favorite is -110 is usually a point spread bet, where you have to lay points. A moneyline where a ranked team is playing an unranked team is usually -150 or -200 as an example. In this case the ranked team is usually good and the unranked team is bad.
When the line is -110 you are almost always giving points unless the game is a Pick.
On a side note, it is never good to take all favorites. This is how Vegas makes their money-when the public loves a favorite, bet it like crazy and it ends up losing.
2:52 pm
Not bad, but it needs just a touch of refinement.
I would pick only the ranked teams over the unranked teams when the ranked team is at home.
Check my website for all the college games picked to win straight up, I provide a calculated statistical probability for the favored team to win for each game every week.
And be sure you understand exactly how the money line works.
12:04 am
You are almost right. The payout for the SPREAD bets is usually -110, not for moneylines. Moneylines are wagers that are for the winner with no spread. The moneyline for the favorite will be a lot lower than -110. There are sites that offer -105 for point spreads, and you have the option of selling points too. Your %53 figure is correct for point spread wagering with a customary -110 or 1.90 line. Look at for more info and free sports picks, betting tips, and great sports betting stats.
9:29 am
there is no money line on a lot of college games because one ranked team will obviously beat another unranked team. Yes the Ranked teams win most of the time but you will find that the percentage goes down if you look at the games that actually offer a moneyline.As far as your stance that you will only bet on ranked teams give some thought to this, the lines come from Vegas who spend alot of time and money to make sure they know what is going to happen in the game. Like anyother business you invest the most on what will give you the best return. Because they know that the majority of people are betting on the known teams they will put the most into those games. This is why alot of professional bettors go with smaller schools they can pickan area and learn more about those teams and their opponents then a casoni will put into that school or conference. This is why the casinos took the Ivy League off the boards, they were losing to much money on them.
If you want some picks for this week.
Auburn +2over Georgia
AF -31/2 over ND
Purdue -4 over Michigan st
Miss St +4 over Bama
Missouri -181/2 over Tex A&M
Hawaii -17 over Fresno St.